Best MLB Home Run Bets, Props, and Odds - FanDuel Dinger Tuesday (2024)

We're looking to bet home run props today with FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday promotion, focusing on Ketel Marte and the Diamondbacks against a vulnerable lefty plus a tried-and-true HR bet: Anybody swinging at Coors Field.

Tuesdays are for (betting on) home run props.

During the MLB season, Tuesday has become the unofficial-official day to bet on MLB player props for homers — with several sportsbooks offering specific betting promotions related to long balls.

However, none are as popular as FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday, where for two different games, you place a $25 bet on a player to hit a home run and get $5 in bonus bets for every total home run hit in that game (regardless of who hits 'em).

I'll break down the best games to target, including a starting pitcher breakdown and best player values, for Dinger Tuesday tonight.

Best home run props and odds for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday

Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies (Coors Field, 8:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers (stats last 30 days)

Pitcher	HR/9	HR/FB%	FB%
Frankie Montas (RHP)	1.30	12.9	44.0
Ty Blach (LHP)	1.09	16.7	29.8

Banking on Coors Field to deliver on a home run promotion is never a bad idea, although Blach defies logic thus far: He has a 3.25 ERA at home this year (vs. 7.71 on the road), including just six total runs allowed over his last four Coors outings (21 2/3 innings). However, he is a pitch-to-contact guy that gives up a lot of hard contact, and righties are hitting .326 off his this year (with three dingers in his last three starts).

Montas' Statcast page looks just as unappealing as Blach's, with low whiffs and Ks, a bad hard-hit rate, and a high fly-ball percentage, which is not great when playing at Coors. He's given up a home run in three of his last four starts, with lefties doing most of the damage against all variations of his fastball (.347).

Hitters to target - Reds
* = best price available

• *Spencer Steer, RH (+400) - Is 8-for-14 in his last three games with a 47.4% FB rate and .227 ISO vs. LHP over the last month.
• Stuart Fairchild, RH (+540) - Hitting a team-high .333 with three HR vs. lefties in last 30 days, with a 57% fly-ball rate.
• Jeimer Candelario, SH (+420) - Hitting .313 vs. southpaws with a 54.2% FB rate over the last month. Is also riding a three-game multi-hit streak and homered yesterday.
• Tyler Stephenson, RH (+430) - Has a four-game hitting streak after also homering last night, and is hitting .308 off southpaws in the last 30 days.

Hitters to target - Rockies

• Charlie Blackmon, LH (+430) - Hitting .250 with a 48% FB rate off RHP the last month, enters tonight with hits in 4 of 5 games.
• Ryan McMahon, LH (+350) - Team-leading three HR off righties L30, but hitting just .206 with a 37% FB rate — does hit fastballs well (.273, 3 HR) from RHP.
• Elehuris Montero, RH (+350) - Has a 51% FB rate off righties last month, and does hit fastballs well.

Best betting value: Spencer Steer (+400 at FanDuel)

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (Chase Field, 9:40 p.m. ET)
Pitchers (stats last 30 days)

Pitcher	HR/9	HR/FB%	FB%
Kyle Harrison (LHP)	1.33	14.3	43.7
Blake Walston (LHP)	0	0	22.7

Ignore the zeroes for Walston; he's pitched just 8 1/3 MLB innings but has a 1.3 HR/9 at Triple-A this season — and Arizona is tied for eighth in homers vs. LHP since May 1.

Harrison is San Fran's top pitching prospect, but he's been up-and-down with a FB rate north of 40% and four long balls surrendered in his last two outings. He has virtually even platoon splits, with his fastball doing well... but all his secondary stuff is taking a beating.

Hitters to target - Giants
* = best price available

• *Matt Chapman, RH (+350) - Hitting .381 off southpaws the last 30 days, although just an 18% FB rate.
• *Heliot Ramos, SH (+630) - Sports a 42% FB rate and .316 BA vs. lefties over last month, also has seven hits last five games — and HR in two straight.
• *Casey Schmitt, RH (+750) - HR in two of last three games and also seven hits in last five games, plus has a 57% FB rate off southpaws since May 4.
• *Thairo Estrada, RH (+700) - Is 7-for-17 in his last four games, also hitting .375 with a 37% FB rate in the last 30 days.

Hitters to target - Padres

• *Ketel Marte, SH (+360) - Has a team-high six HR off lefties last 30 days, with a 34.3% FB rate and 51.4% hard-hit rate. Hit two HR two days ago vs. a lefty starter.
• *Christian Walker, RH (+430) - Has a 50% FB rate, .241 BA, and two HR off lefties over the last month, along with homers in two of his last four games.
• *Lourdes Gurriel Jr., RH (+600) - Hitting .320 off southpaws in the last 30 days, overall has a six-game hit streak and HR in two straight.
• Blaze Alexander, RH (+830) - Five hits in last three games overall, with a .304 average and 31% FB rate off southpaws since May 4.

Best betting value: Ketel Marte (+360 at FanDuel)

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