Mets return to their regularly scheduled programming with three games in Denver (2024)

Having won their makeup game in St. Louis yesterday evening, the Mets (59-53) are set to resume their originally-scheduled road trip with the first game of a three-game series tonight in Denver. There, they’ll play the Rockies (41-72), who currently have the worst record in the National League.

The Mets’ lineup has been much better over the last couple of months than it was earlier in the season. And recently—over the last two weeks, specifically—several Mets have been fantastic at the plate. Jeff McNeil (198 wRC+), Pete Alonso (164 wRC+), and Harrison Bader (140 wRC+) have led the way, while Tyrone Taylor (139 wRC+), Mark Vientos (135 wRC+), Luis Torrens (133 wRC+), J.D. Martinez (114 wRC+), and Francisco Lindor (107 wRC+) have been above league average. Among their regulars, only Brandon Nimmo, Jose Iglesias, and Francisco Alvarez have really been struggling, and Jesse Winker has only made 15 plate appearances since the team traded for him on July 28.

The Mets’ pitching staff has been doing well for a good while now, too. Over the last thirty days, Mets pitchers rank 10th in baseball with a 3.71 ERA. Mets starting pitchers rank seventh with a 3.43 ERA, and their bullpen has moved in the right direction with a 4.17 ERA that ranks 19th over that span. That might not sound like much, but Mets relievers had a 5.82 ERA from June 15 through July 14, a number over that stretch that was the second-worst in baseball—ahead of only the Rockies.

And speaking of the Rockies, well, they’re bad. Collectively, they have an 81 wRC+ that is the second-worst mark in all of baseball. Only the White Sox—the team that might break the ‘62 Mets’ record for losses in a single season—have been worse by that metric.

Jacob Stallings leads the way among Rockies hitters with a 122 wRC+, albeit in just 204 plate appearances thus far. Having gotten more playing time than expected earlier in the season while Elias Díaz was out, he took advantage of it, and over the past couple of weeks, he’s been red-hot and splitting playing time with Díaz pretty evenly. Aside from Stallings, though, only Brenton Doyle (106 wRC+) and Ryan McMahon (102 wRC+) have been better than league average hitters.

On the mound, the Rockies have been the worst team in baseball with a 5.52 ERA. Even accounting for the effects of playing at altitude, their 117 ERA- is the second-worst in the league—once again ahead of only the White Sox. Neither the rotation nor the bullpen has truly been better than the other, as each of those segments of the Colorado pitching staff also ranks dead last in baseball in ERA.

When these teams played in Queens earlier this month, the Mets won the first two games before dropping the series finale. Simply put, this series is one that the Mets need to and should win, and a sweep should be the goal.

Back in the Mets’ division-winning season in 2015, the team played a three-game series in Denver in August. They went into that series with a 3.5-game lead in the division and proceeded to score 33 runs over the course of the series en route to a sweep. This time around, they’re 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot and 7.0 games back of the first-place Phillies, but the opportunity to leave Denver in an improved position is still very much there.

Tuesday, August 6: Luis Severino vs. Kyle Freeland at 8:40 PM EDT on SNY

Severino (2024): 123.1 IP, 96 K, 44 BB, 14 HR, 3.93 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 101 ERA-

In his most recent start, Severino was flat out bad and gave up six runs to the Twins in just three innings. That ended a short run in which he had been really effective, but he’s now just a tick below league average on the season. All things considered, that’s still a pretty good outcome for him this year, but given the renewed absence of Kodai Senga, it would be nice if Severino were trending more toward being a number two pitcher than a number three or four.

Freeland (2024): 59.0 IP, 48 K, 15 BB, 9 HR, 5.64 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 119 ERA-

Now in his eighth season as a member of the Rockies’ rotation, Freeland is putting up his worst single-season ERA since 2019. And while home/road splits are very much the norm for Colorado’s pitchers, Freeland’s are extreme this year. He has a 1.88 ERA on the road and a whopping 8.23 ERA at home. Over the course of his career, his ERA at home is just fourth-tenths of a run higher than it is on the road.

Wednesday, August 7: Paul Blackburn vs. Ryan Feltner at 8:40 PM EDT on SNY

Blackburn (2024): 57.0 IP, 44 K, 16 BB, 8 HR, 4.11 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 105 ERA-

Most Mets fans probably weren’t very familiar with Blackburn—if they’d heard of him at all—before the team got him in a trade with the A’s at the deadline. He made a great first impression, though, as he gave up just one run in six innings with six strikeouts and two walks in his debut with the team in Anaheim on Friday night.

Feltner (2024): 121.1 IP, 106 K, 39 BB, 17 HR, 4.97 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 105 ERA-

The 27-year-old righty has taken a step forward this year after accumulating a 6.06 ERA over the past three seasons. He has a 6.14 ERA at home and a 4.19 ERA on the road this year. Mets pitchers have to pitch at altitude in this series, too, but hey, that’s encouraging.

Thursday, August 3: David Peterson vs. Austin Gomber at 3:10 PM EDT on SNY

Peterson (2024): 59.2 IP, 47 K, 27 BB, 6 HR, 3.47 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 89 ERA-

What David Peterson has done this season and what he might be expected to do moving forward are different things. As you can see above, he’s done better than his FIP by over a full run. Statcast’s xERA looks even worse at 5.30, and over at Baseball Prospectus, his 4.75 DRA sits in between the two. Over the course of his career, Peterson’s ERA has been nearly identical to his FIP. He’ll likely need to improve upon his drastically-reduced strikeout rate to keep up a mid-threes ERA the rest of the way.

Gomber (2024): 116.0 IP, 84 K, 28 BB, 22 HR, 4.66 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 99 ERA-

This year, Gomber has been one of those rare Rockies pitchers who has been significantly better at home than on the road. He’s sporting a 3.83 ERA at Coors Field, which is more than respectable given the conditions there. With a low strikeout rate and a home run problem, though, he’s a pitcher the Mets need to get to in the series finale—regardless of how well the series has gone up to that point.